A VOICES: River City analysis of recent Sacramento County voter registration numbers has found a shift toward Democratic voters in the county in recent years–with double-digit margins over registered Republicans in four out of five county supervisor districts.
Statistics released by the Sacramento County Voter Registration and Elections office show that Democrats make up 45.2% of the county’s registered voters, while the GOP holds just 25.7%. This is roughly a 20-point favor for Democrats, and a seven-point blue-shift from 2010.
Within the city of Sacramento, Democrats have a commanding hold on the electorate with 55% of registered voters, compared to just 15.5% GOP–a lead of nearly 40 points.
Outside city limits, the Democratic lead shrinks to just 10 percentage points. However, they hold double-digit margins in four out of five county supervisor districts, including GOP Supervisor Susan Peters’ (D3, D+13), a seat she is vacating this year.
The only GOP majority region–held by Supervisor Sue Frost in District 4–shows a margin of just four points.
No Party Preference voters make up between 21 and 24 percent of the electorate in every district throughout the region. Throughout the state, this demographic tends to lean left–particularly new NPP voters, who are more often younger and Latino.
The last decade has seen a steep, continuous decline in the California GOP, leaving state Democrats to rule the legislative and executive branches outright–their biggest foes being the progressive wing of their own party. This trend does not appear to be changing.
Last year, Paul Mitchell, Vice President of Political Data Inc., said that about 45% of registered voters who die in the state are GOP. Republicans make up just 24% of the state’s registered voters.
California’s pre-registered 16- and 17-year-olds are nearly three times more likely to choose to join the Democratic Party over Republicans, according to Secretary of State data from February. They’re more than twice as likely to choose No Party Preference over the GOP.
One of the few holdouts for Republicans in California in recent years has been local city and county elected offices, of which they held a majority throughout the state through 2016. But according to Robb Korinke of GrassrootsLab, that has also faltered:
Yes @oldmanfoster… @madrid_mike is correct. Prior to 2016 Republicans held majority of city/county seats. They’ve cratered since. They hold a slight edge in County seats still, but have lost ground there and collapsed in suburban cities.
— Robb (@Korinke) July 9, 2020
The California Secretary of State’s next update on registered voter statistics is expected to be released in August 2020.
